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11. Albania - In an analysis done much later we showed how a major medical disaster was completely missed by the limited information
systems still in use throughout most of the world.
12. Venezuela – we preferred Governor Rosales in the last election but without independent vote auditing had no expectations he would be
elected. With sorrow, we continue to watch the continuing dramatic decline of a country that should be doing very well. In a manner similar to
Slovenia, we suggested that the Governor seriously consider separation once Venezuela’s social and economic collapse is noticeable. The
combination of rising imported food costs and declining oil exports is catching Venezuela in a scissors.
13. Nicaragua – although we favored Eduardo Montealegre, we predicted the Ortega victory. We are hoping Nicaragua is not foolish enough
to depend on Cuba or Venezuela.
14. Haiti – we found an equilibrium involving Cuba, Jamaica and the Bahamas. Initially, the late Milton Friedman commented that our
models were not applicable because Haiti had no economy. He subsequently relented, and remarked that even though our solution was
“implausible; impossible while Fidel is alive; and impertinent, you must persist because there is no other alternative, and because your ideas
show extraordinary compassion and a touch of cleverness.”
15. Andes – just prior to the election of Evo Morales we tried to convince Bolivia, Chile and Peru that an inter-modal Pacific port co-owned
and co-operated would be in the interest of all three countries. We are not particularly worried about Chile’s future, but we have
considerable concerns about Bolivia and Peru, and, by extension, Ecuador. We expect further economic distancing by Brazil, increases in
AIDS and associated medical problems, and social instability fueled by poverty, linguistic barriers and ethnic exclusions. Perhaps lithium will
save Bolivia.
16. In a satellite study titled “Precision in Peru” presented to the Peruvian Consul General in July 2006 we noted that a major marine
earthquake and tsunamis could devastate Lima (population 10 million) and the port of Callao and cripple the nation. We observed that, much
like the infamous 1755 Lisbon event, the worst possible time is mid-morning on a religious feast day. The Pisco earthquake was not as
powerful as we were simulating but it did occur on the Feast of the Assumption on August 15, 2007. The tremors were in the evening so the
church collapse only killed hundreds.