Only the most desperately pedantic
paleoseismologist would mention that April
6 was the 431st anniversary of the 1580
Dover Straits earthquake. As with the Basel
event, there's considerable doubt about the
Richter strength of the event: estimates
range from 5.3 to 6.0. There is also no
general agreement on which fault or faults
were involved, or where the epicenter is
likely to have been. In a daring leap of logic,
unencumbered by statistics, sampling sizes,
correlations or other considerations, several
Puritan theorists of the time asserted the
quake was caused by London's emphasis on
theater. We note that English drama has not
had a Jonson or a Shakespeare in 400
years. Since England has been largely
earthquake-free, perhaps the Puritans were
correct. We are hard at work trying to
determine what literary effort might have
triggered the 2007 Kent event. In the
meantime, we did run some simulations of
major marine seismic events in both the
North and Celtic Seas in an effort to
determine what impact an event in either
region would have on the Chunnel.   
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