| From some
work we did in 2007. It was clear that Iran
had looming |
|
challenges with employment and infrastructure. While
we appreciated |
| the
strategic problem of being surrounded by potentially
hostile |
| countries
and American military bases, our HIROLA software saw
no |
|
economic point in developing atomic weapons. The
technology costs |
| too much
and employs too few as South Africa and Brazil, among
|
| others,
discerned. Besides the vagaries of southwest Asian
winds |
| blowing
fallout and dust back on Iran, there is the
consideration that |
| exploding
nuclear devices in southwest Pakistan would interfere
with |
| critical
rice shipments to India and vital oil shipments
eastward. As far |
| as we are
aware, only Pakistan of Iran's immediate neighbors has
|
| nuclear
weapons, but a sufficiently motivated government could
likely |
| buy them.
We did a series of simulations of nuclear explosions
in |
| the Persian
Gulf itself. The follow-on tsunamis are quite
destructive. |
| These
results led us to consider a joint-ventured high speed
rail |
| network
which we dubbed Calcutta-Caspian-Cairo. Among the
choices |
| were a
hydrofoil ferry or tunnel across Hormuz; crossing by
land near |
| Kuwait; or
crossing Iraq west of Tehran. Ultimately, the trains
would |
| be
mixed-mode: freight like the old Silk Roads and
pilgrims to Mecca. |
