I-MAG STS Corporation
Precise counts of the two Congolese provinces and the one Rwandan province that surround Lake Kivu are
currently impossible to obtain. In part, this is due to disease
mortality accounting being done in arrears due to
the tragic shortage of doctors and nurses. Dengue, chikungunya, malaria and AIDS are the major killers, and
there is currently
another outbreak of what has been reported as Ebola. Depending on the level and location of
violence, a refugee population of nearly four million can shift toward Rwanda, Uganda or
the Democratic
Republic of the Congo. Today, the population of North Kivu province is estimated to be 4.4 million; the
population of South Kivu province is estimated to be
4.2 million and the population of West province in Rwanda
is 2.4 million for a total of 11 million people. The population of the Ruzizi River valley is not known, but
Bujumbura, the capital of Burundi, is on northern Lake Tanganyika and has a metro area population in excess of
one million. Besides Goma (1,000,000), the other large population masses are
Kabare (40,000), Kalehe (60,000), Sake
(30,000), Bukavu (500,000), Kibuye (50,000), Gisenyi (80,000) and Cyangugu (70,000). Our models indicate that
between the massive explosion
and clouds of poisonous gases and up to three tsunami waves the initial
casualties would be between two and four million people killed outright in the first 24 hours. Any significant
activity by Nyiragongo or a major earthquake would only increase the death toll. We estimate another three
million people dead due to starvation, disease and exposure
within 60 days. It is not obvious that the economies
of Rwanda and possibly even Burundi could withstand this damage. We realize that it will be necessary to
evacuate the
equivalent of the population of the American state of North Carolina.