I-MAG STS - Peru
In July 2006 we gave a presentation to the local Consul General of Peru. It was a lengthy document titled "Precision in
Peru" which discussed anthropology, linguistics, agriculture and public health, especially AIDS, dengue, malaria and
hemorrhagic fevers. It is impossible to consider Peru without dealing with volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis.
Geology and economics combine to make our recommended construction of a multi-national (involving Chile, Bolivia
and perhaps Ecuador) inter-modal container port and cathedral very challenging. We mentioned our concerns arising
from our computer simulations of the effects of a massive (9.0 like the 1868 event) marine earthquake with an
epicenter west of Lima. One issue is that the Lima metropolitan area has over ten million people - one of every three
Peruvians - and it is growing far faster than the population of the country as a whole. It is neither economical nor
practical to expect to scale infrastructure services like education, medical care, sewage collection, clean water, and
electricity. The Cathedral of Lima, by some described as the spiritual center of the nation, as been damaged or
destroyed by earthquakes in 1609, 1687, 1746 and 1940. Peru has had six 7.5 or greater earthquakes, including one
which was 8.4, since 1996. Depending on location, sometimes are there tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. We
predicted three separate ten meter waves striking Lima and the port of Callao. The bulk of Peru's capacity to unload
ships and airplanes would be lost. Roads and bridges would be severely damaged - even if panicked citizens could be
kept away, it is not obvious that relief supplies could be transported. Most of Lima's government offices, hospitals,
communications hubs and utility distribution centers would be in the tsunami damage zone. We would expect two
million Peruvians killed immediately with grim prospects due to exposure, starvation and disease for millions more.
We rather offhandedly mentioned that part of the impact of the Lisbon earthquake in 1755 was due to the vast
majority of citizens being in church. Fortunately, the August 15, 2007 Pisco event, while also on a religious feast, was
only an 8.0 earthquake (smaller than the nearby 1908, 1966, 1974 and 2001 events); was not in the morning; caused no
tsunamis and only broke windows in Lima. The bulk of the 500 people killed and 85,000 homes destroyed were in
Pisco itself. It would be imprudent for the governments of the Andean nations not to expect further seismic
catastrophes and short-sighted not to plan for mutual assistance. Our Saola application software (named for a recently
discovered Vietnamese bovine) provides insight into volcanic disasters. In geometry the Latin phrase "quod erat
demonstrandum" ("that which was to be demonstrated") is often placed at the end of a proof to indicate its
completion. It would be disappointing to write Peru, QED after the next seismic event.